INTRODUCTION:
In my first foreign policy review of Kenya, I believe it's important to understand the fact that for a long time, Kenya’s FP has been relatively stale and lowkey, between the post cold war period down to the year 2013, as back then it was relatively non-aligned with a little blend of Chinese relations which resulted to some of the major infrastructural projects in the country such as the Thika Superhighway which was inaugurated in 2011. Aside from that, our country’s behavior was relatively one with less controversy and more of foreign aid and regional integration with the African Union and East Africa Community. However with the entry of the Jubilee government in 2013, Kenya’s foreign relations became a beehive of activity with the first major activity being the launch of the first comprehensive foreign policy that the country ever had since independence. Aside from that, there was a tale of borrowing (lots of it) from literally both sides of the world (East & West). Besides that, the President and his diplomatic team were able to make more gains so far in terms of foreign visits, welcomes and deals signed compared to any other head of state in the republic. The President, who proclaims himself as an avid diplomat, has continued to commit and pull all strides to ensure that the interests of Kenya are being represented in the best way possible. This in turn, has resulted in Kenya ‘doing things alone’ rather than involving its fellow African states in some of the foreign deals and negotiation it does which in turn has brought mixed reactions to the citizens as well as Political Science Students around the region. 2nd Class Citizens takes this time to review Kenya’s lone strategy and whether it is actually beneficial for it?
Kenya- US Relations: Deal that angered African nations
(c) Africa Investor
During President Kenyatta’s first visit to the White House in 2019 on a foreign mission to visit Donald Trump, Kenyatta and his team were able to set the foundations of what would be trade talks that would seek to benefit both the nations. This is as the United States imports goods worth $667 million while Kenya imported goods worth $409 million during the year of 2019, a statistic that has continuously increased over the past years due to the relaxed trade policies that were enacted in the previous years. Majority of Kenyan imports from the US are machinery, aircraft equipment and plastic materials while the US imports mainly agricultural products and apparel.
Therefore as a starting point, Kenya and the other African countries have been trading through the Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade deal that was set up to improve trade between the US and the African continent. The deal was biased in nature as the US had full control over the deal and was able to easily alter the agreements to directly suit their interests. And as the AGOA agreement is set to expire in 2025, and with no sign of its renewal, this has prompted Kenya to seek its way out in an event it is caught in the mix of an expiring deal that could directly lock itself out from one of its largest export markets.
In preparation, Nairobi decided to engage discussions with Washington and in July 2020, the first round of the Free Trade Agreement, the first of its kind in Sub Saharan Africa, was launched and the Americans believe that it should serve as a model for other African countries to engage with them, a move which is worrying other African states, especially those who directly depended on the unifying African act of the AGOA. The move further led to criticism by the African Union, considering the fact that the previous year, Kenya signed an Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) with 54 other African countries which strives to improve trade and further create a customs union that will enable easier passage of goods between the member states. AU claims that Kenya’s deal with the US jeopardizes the process and that the FTA model used against African countries will result in biases in the negotiation process that could affect other African countries. Kenya further strained the EAC protocol through Article 37 which disallows external bilateral trade agreements without the involvement with the EAC further puts Nairobi on an uphill task.
Kenya however claims that the FTA deal is necessary for the state due to the unique complex relationship the nation shares with the US and that through the conceptualization of the FTA, Kenya stands to benefit more from quicker negotiations and bigger trade deals that will promote its economy in the long run. Kenya also assured its full commitment to the AfCFTA) and AGOA in its remaining years as it also claims that this model shall further benefit the EAC and other country partners that country is allied to. It is genuinely agreed that Kenya and the US have more than just an economic relationship but rather a strategic relationship based on other major issues such as security as Kenya is in the active participation in Somalia while fighting against Al Shabaab. Therefore with this relationship, there’s more to it than an economic relationship that made Washington choose Nairobi for its maiden FTA talks and as much as the US elections are/were heavily underway, if Trump manages to secure his seat for a second term, the deal is more likely to continue as compared to if the Democrats take position.
As highlighted by the US Ambassador to Kenya Kylie McCarter on a recent interview on local media, he addressed the fact that with the republican government in power, Kenya would tend to benefit more as compared to a Democrat government, a statement that could be open for further debate in the long run. However, the fact remains that as much as the US needs a strategic partner in the African Continent, Kenya remains as the most viable and stable partner in its relations.
Kenya’s world tour and receptions: Relationship Building.
In the past 7 years, the president has travelled to four continents with the majority of his visits in Africa so as to bolster relations with key strategic allies among them members of the EAC, Nigeria, South Africa, Namibia and Senegal. The president during his second tenure has been very keen on boosting his foreign trips, main reason being to market his Big 4 Agenda so as to be able to boost investments and bilateral cooperation in the country and with the role the country has in the region, has resulted to Kenya further hosting a couple of International Conferences among them UNCTAD, WTO conference, ICAO meetings and other several high delegation meetings that has seen Nairobi host leaders from around the world. In reverse, Kenya has also been invited to high profile meetings such as the G7 summit in 2017, 2018 in Italy and Canada respectively, making it the first African to be invited twice in succession, thus showing the importance the country has set itself in the International Politics.
However between 2017 and 2019, the head of State performed unique state visits among the being Jamaica where the president agreed to bolster relations between the two countries in a bid to promote the “African connection” between the Caribbean state and African state. The president further created connections with the Barbados state, which resulted in the Barbados leader making a visit to Nairobi so as to boost the ties between the nation. Kenya has also seen ties with ‘new’ countries such as Cuba develop during his tenure, and further visits by India, EU leaders among other countries have significantly increased over this period of time in a bid to bolster its position in the international system. Majority of these talks are based on security issues, fight against corruption, migration and humanitarian assistance as well as development projects as part of his Big 4 Agenda, it is safe to say that the Government has chosen bilateral diplomacy and individual agreement with states as its way of fostering its national interests.
East Africa Community: A Divided Bloc?
(c) TheRwandan
Needless to say that Kenyans generally have a stable reputation among its neighbors and are regarded as the ones ‘you can deal with’ however, I must stress the bitter sweet relationship of Kenya and Tanzania, the kind which everyone knows has been spewing on and off since the post independence period. From the varying ideologies on Pan Africanism of the founding fathers all the way to the pursuit for economic growth of the two countries. The fact that Kenya and Tanzania have strategic shipping lines of Mombasa and Dar es Salaam respectively, makes both countries very lucrative for shipping of goods into the landlocked countries. And with this lucrative shorelines at their disposal, comes the competition. Just as early as 2020, Uganda betrayed Kenya in a multi-million dollar deal of creating an oil pipeline that would pass through Tanzania. The line which will be 1,445km is predicted to be the first of its kind in Africa and is expected to boost the economies of both countries, leaving Kenya to just stare at the endeavors that they will have through this deal. However as much as Nairobi did not comment on this issue, it was relatively visible that it was not pleased with the sudden shift in allegiances of Uganda, considering Kenya’s largest trading partner being them. Tanzania and Kenya have been involved in several diplomatic spats, most recent one being the border closure dispute when Tanzanian border officials denied entry of Kenyan drivers and vice versa as the two countries had very strong varying health protocols. This resulted in both countries resulting in diplomacy to resolve the issue. This spat represents the several other acts that Tanzania has continued to perform in Kenya, among them, when the infamous incident in 2016 of the Energy Minister Charles Keter of Kenya detained in Tanga and his passport confiscated by the Tanzanian officials during a tour with Uganda officials over the then disputed Ugandan oil pipeline. Despite Tanzania claiming that they were not aware of the Kenyan delegation visit, complaints were lodged by the Foreign Affairs Ministry in Kenya which to date, the findings were not released. Therefore this among other cases just show how Tanzania and Kenya are always on the receiving end when it comes to issues of trade and as much as the head of states have tried resolving the issues at hand, there still remains sidelining of Tanzanians and Kenyans in these relations. To add insults into injury, multiple sources revealed that during the UNSC vote of Kenya, Tanzania did not vote for the East African Republic and ‘explored other countries’ to take the seat, of which, has never been clarified to date.
Therefore with the continuing on and off disputes between the two, it must be acknowledged that Kenya has for a long time depended on Tanzania for trade and vice versa and that these countries need to formally settle these disputes once and for all as if these nation states are not careful, it could result to a full blown diplomatic row.
Therefore onto the main Question: Is Kenya better going all out alone?
The spirit of Ubuntu lies with African states including Kenya, where we believe that with unity we can achieve more, and it has indeed happened, through regional blocs and the African Union, African States have been able to significantly improve form their previous status and as much as Kenya has also been a beneficiary in this process, it is very much important to understand that Kenya’s needs are relatively different from that of its neighbors and other countries in Africa.
The reason being, beginning with the Jubilee Government which is focused on the Big 4 Agenda; Enhanced Manufacturing, Food, Security and Nutrition, Universal health Coverage (UHC) and Housing, the government has a clear agenda that it has set out to complete within a limited time frame and with the constraints that are brought in as a result of multilateral negotiations, the country finds it easier to instead go head on with the country it has interests with, and with a unique non-alignment notion that it practices in its foreign policy, Nairobi is set to gain literally all it can from all the relations it performs with other countries, from the largest of countries, to the smallest, just to ensure that it can bring along anyone it can at the given time.
And with the Vision 2030 in line as the long term project, the country’s plans vary heavily with the plans that its direct neighbors have and for Kenya, that presents a threat to its development and foreign relations agenda as they fear the deliberate slowing down of some of the plans that they have through the heavy articles that have been governing the bloc since its formation. And with Kenya the hegemon it is, it seeks to retain its position and have a competitive advantage over its neighbors and other African states, in a form of ‘zero-sum’ game policy of its kind.
Kenya & the International Politics.
Economic statistics of Kenya aside, the country's political presence has continued to rapidly grow over the past decade. From the peacekeeping missions that the country actively participated and currently participates in, to the military operations it performs in countries such as Somalia and its very important fight against terrorism, the country has elevated itself to a strategic partner that many of the nations and organizations would be keen to working with. With Kenya hosting the US military in operations against Al Shabaab, the UK military camp in Nanyuki (Central Kenya) and other military corporations, Kenya continues to be an ally in the global security agenda, and with appointments in major United Nations Bodies across such as ECOSOC, WTO among others over the years and with the recent election of Kenya into the UNSC, Kenya has continued to make strands in the international politics.
Nairobi plays a major role in international politics as it plays home to the United Nations Office in Nairobi (UNON), forming as the fourth city after New York, Vienna and Geneva, making it the diplomatic hub of the region and continent as a whole. The city also plays host to various embassies which represent other countries within the region as a result of its flexibility. So imagine Nairobi having all these resources and using it to its advantage.
Final Thoughts:
Kenya indeed stands to make a lot from going all out on its foreign relations, from all the resources it has, to its relatively strong diplomatic team which is able to push for policies to strengthen the country's image. Kenya should further focus on issues such as the security and economic agenda, to be able to effectively build its security capability to be able to fully support in the fight against terror as there still remains fundamental gaps in the military system, most of it relating to financial gaps, and to further push for more economic gains that directly work in line with the citizens agenda and wishes. As much as Kenya should go bilateral, a blend of multilateralism should also be implied if it desires to benefit from both sides of the coin and this will further boost the country’s image as a caring and committed nation to its neighbors which will further mean more gains for the country.
And as much as Multilateralism is key, countries at the end of the day love themselves before they love others.
Do you think Kenya can prove that bilateralism is more effective in the 21st century?
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References
Andreas Hemp, B., Catherine Draper, U., Dr Getrude Dadirai Gwenzi, L., Elisabetta Aurino, I., Benjamin H. Bradlow, H., Monique Wasunna, K., . . . William Hauk, U. (2020, November 12). Home Page – Views & Research. Retrieved November 12, 2020, from https://theconversation.com/africa
Ustr.gov. (n.d.). Kenya. Retrieved November 12, 2020, from https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/africa/east-africa/kenya
Caporal, J. (2020, October 02). Going Solo: What Is the Significance of a U.S.-Kenya Free Trade Agreement? Retrieved November 12, 2020, from https://www.csis.org/analysis/going-solo-what-significance-us-kenya-free-trade-agreement
Kibet, R. (2020, September 06). Recurring Diplomatic Row Between Kenya And Tanzania Likely To Threaten AfCFTA Success. Retrieved November 12, 2020, from https://www.ubuntutimes.com/recurring-diplomatic-row-between-kenya-and-tanzania-likely-to-threaten-afcfta-success/
Kiruga, M. (2020, September 14). Uganda and Tanzania to build East Africa's first major oil pipeline. Retrieved November 12, 2020, from https://www.theafricareport.com/41547/uganda-and-tanzania-to-build-east-africas-first-major-oil-pipeline/
Kajilwa & Jacob, G. (2016, March 25). Kenya protests to Tanzania over confiscation of Charles Keter's passport. Retrieved November 12, 2020, from https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/kenya/article/2000196026/kenya-protests-to-tanzania-over-confiscation-of-charles-keters-passport
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/opinion-analysis/ideas-debate/kenya-us-free-trade-deal-won-t-come-easy-2301156
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